At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, experts presented a report forecasting the consequences of the widespread introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The forecast is predominantly positive: growth of the world economy, as well as getting rid of human routine work through automation and increased labor productivity.
The speakers assume that AI capable of making independent decisions will emerge in the coming decades and will be able to replace humans in almost all labor areas. Full automation of labor is expected in approximately 125 years – counting from 2016. In approximately 40 years, AI will be able to replace surgeons, and it will probably replace retailers in 15 years. In 30 years, artificial intelligence will be able to write a bestseller. Several AI systems will be able to work in the same field, coordinating with each other.
This will lead to a roughly tenfold growth of the world economy. However, according to the authors of the report, this will increase the risk of increasing social inequality, so it is proposed to strengthen the powers of institutions that are responsible for the distribution of benefits derived from the work of AI. The same institutions will have to solve the problem of the disappearance of jobs caused by the widespread introduction of these technologies: AI systems can displace humans not only where routine tasks are performed, but also in the field of highly skilled labor.
The remaining “human” occupations will make work less interesting and more “stressful,” as the role of control systems in the workplace will increase. To combat the displacement of people by machines, WEF experts propose to prioritize the development of solutions that increase the efficiency of human work, but do not exclude human participation completely. This will require a new approach to social protection issues, including the introduction of a guaranteed basic income.